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Wild Year for Admissions Ahead: Noise in Higher Ed Admissions Continues to Grow

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The CollegeBoard's SAT student database was released last week, and millions of emails soliciting undergraduate admissions are now bombarding prospective students. These solicitations are in addition to an ever-increasing amount of postal mail fueled by the rising competitive nature of undergraduate admissions.

Such increased marketing initiatives are evidently having an effect, especially as colleges are seeing huge increases in the number of applications being submitted. A record number of applicants, a record number of applications and a record number of matriculations are expected in the coming year. About two-thirds of high school graduates go directly to a two- or four-year college, according to David Hawkins, director of public policy and research for the National Association for College Admission Counseling.

In a recent article titled "Long Lines at College Gates", The Washington Post describes how some of the most elite schools are seeing staggering increases in application volume. While this year's class is a few percent points larger than last year’s, the estimates of double digit growth in college applications indicate that this will be a wild year for admissions offices as they try to fine-tune enrollments in an increasingly noisy environment.

This admission craze is not only taking place at the undergraduate level, in fact, medical schools are experiencing a surge in applications as well. With a record number of applicants issuing a record number of applications for a record number of spots, this year's increase may well surpass last year’s dramatic 8.2% increase. According to AMCAS, in 2007, 546,817 applications from 42,315 applicants resulted in 17,759 students starting medical school. These figures represent an average of 13 applications per applicant. Four years ago, 34,786 applicants generated 392,118 applications with 16,538 matriculating—an average of 11 applications per applicant.

The increase in application volume per student is being fueled by several factors. Certainly, one factor is that the higher education market is currently a "sellers market" – the value of a degree from an elite college is believed to be greater than ever, while supply of seats is perceived to be equally as scarce. A second factor is the ease in which students can now apply. Online applications and related automation tools make submitting an application easier than ever before, and the cost of applying is not viewed as a significant barrier to most.

It is becoming an arms race between families and schools. More school marketing and hype equals more applications which then results in lower yield. In some sense, schools have coveted relationship as they are rewarded for their selectivity. One major factor in the ratings game is the number of students a school denies admission. The higher this rejection percentage, the better the school is perceived to be. Add to this perception a $50 per application fee (several hundred for medical school) and there is a nice revenue center in collecting applications.

As The Washington Post article describes, the standard formula approach to the competitive full-time admissions process is under great stress. Old formulas for enrollment management will need to be reworked—otherwise, there will be over capacity issues at some institutions and under capacity issues at other colleges.

In last week's column, we discussed how many adult learners apply to just a few schools—often even only one school—and how this process is far more oriented toward marketing degree availability as opposed to comparison with other schools. In continuing education, part-time divisions of many schools the process is not nearly as competitive; applicants who meet the entrance requirements are generally admitted. It is interesting to note that this sector's bellwether, University of Phoenix, reported a 40% no show rate last quarter, which might be a possible indication that some school comparison is moving into the adult learner market.

Are there any lessons to be learned here? One is personal connection. Students that can be drawn to an early preference and can be guaranteed entry would seem to be more likely to start. The key is cultivating an ongoing personal touch and honesty between the student and school and less a sense of gaming. One thing is certain, more TV ads, billboards, email broadcasts, postal mailings are making this process messier. At a recent College Night, a counselor plead to families NOT to check the “seek more information from schools” opt-in box on students’ SATs in an attempt to curb the resulting "ecological disaster," specifically the barrage of direct mailings that will inevitably follow. I tend to think the graphic designers and admissions officials behind these direct mailing campaigns would view their work in the same light!.

For more on this subject, we suggest following the work of the Education Conservancy at http://www.educationconservancy.org/.

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Mark Shay is the founder of EDU - a leading academic advertising provider, - part of Halyard Education Partners, a leader in student lead generation and enrollment management services.